AI is killing open source software. If we act now, it won’t do away with collaborative software development, but I do think it is changing open source software as we know it.
This was originally posted on YouTube as my daily walk, think and share. Below is the transcription.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgR4ww94Evk
Two recent events highlight why change is coming to open source software and why we should pay attention.
The $3 Billion Signal
OpenAI offered to buy Windsurf, an AI-powered software development tool, for $3 billion. That’s a lot of money for a software development tool, especially when OpenAI already builds AI tools and could develop their own. This signals that there’s significant money in AI-powered software development right now.
The “Not Dead” Disclaimer
Articles keep appearing—including from GitHub’s CEO—insisting that software development isn’t dead as a career. The fact that people feel the need to make this argument suggests AI is changing the profession enough to worry people about their future.
When a company pays $3 billion for what’s reportedly their second choice (they wanted Cursor first), and industry leaders repeatedly assure us that developers aren’t going away, the career and industry are clearly changing.
Since open source software is part of this industry, it will change too. And I think the change will be significant.
A Lesson from Architecture
History offers a useful parallel. Architects once spent their days at drafting boards, creating detailed building plans by hand. Drawing was the core of their work.
Then CAD software arrived in the 1980s. AutoCAD and similar tools could generate these drawings automatically. The architect’s role transformed completely. Instead of drawing all day, they focused on design, planning, and problem-solving at the computer.
Some architects welcomed this change, especially if they found drafting tedious. Others missed the hands-on craftsmanship that drew them to the profession.
The Same Thing Is Happening to Software Development
Software development is undergoing a similar transformation. Developers use AI to write code and solve familiar problems.
A CTO at a small startup told me he loves AI tools because they let him build prototypes and reach market faster. But he no longer writes code or algorithms or figures out solutions himself. Instead, he directs the AI tool like a project manager or architect.
This resembles what happens to successful open source developers. They start by writing useful code, but as others join their project, they gradually shift from coding to reviewing code, setting direction, and planning architecture.
AI is doing to all software developers what success does to open source developers—it turns them into maintainers.
What This Means for Open Source
If developers are becoming maintainers, what happens to open source software?
AI typically chooses which software and dependencies to use in a project. It selects the open source libraries. When problems arise, AI generates the fixes.
Will AI submit pull requests when it fixes bugs? This might actually improve things—AI could write better documentation, clearer comments, and more complete bug reports.
If projects also use AI for reviews, we’ll have AI contributing to AI-managed projects.
The 10-Second Problem
But AI’s speed might discourage contribution altogether. If AI can create software in 10-15 seconds, will anyone bother sharing that code? Why create a project when the next developer can generate the same solution just as quickly?
When I use AI for projects now, it responds so fast it seems impossible it could have processed my input properly. I dismiss these quick solutions because they feel valueless—why share something when everyone has equal access to generate it?
What We Need to Figure Out
If we want open source software and collaborative development to survive, we need to understand what collaboration means when AI provides answers instantly.
What should we share? The problems we want to solve? Our approaches to solving them? More complete software upfront? Should we distribute software freely even if the code matters less than before?
These questions need answers as software development changes around us.
What do you think? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.